Aramco's Nasser sees Brent reaching $200 without East-West Pipeline

Brent crude prices could have reached $200 per barrel without Saudi Aramco’s East-West Pipeline, CEO Amin Nasser stated.

Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Nasser noted that physical crude prices sometimes trade $20-$50 per barrel above the Brent benchmark.

Chinese demand for liquids used in the chemicals industry will support oil demand growth and offset any decline stemming from the shift toward electrification, Nasser said.

Nasser said there was huge demand to build additional inventories around the world.

Oil demand is expected to remain stable over the next two years if conditions return to normal now, he added.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has severely disrupted maritime shipping, placing significant pressure on global supply chains.

Aramco is exploring additional routes for crude exports and expanding overseas storage capacity to help mitigate short-term disruptions.

Nasser revealed that around three billion barrels had been lost from global oil supplies, equivalent to nearly half the crude and petroleum products that would normally transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Rebuilding inventories while continuing to meet demand could take up to two years, he cautioned.

The world entered the crisis with roughly 10 billion barrels in oil inventories, Nasser pointed out. More than one billion barrels have since been drawn down to ease supply shortages, with most of the drawdown coming from onshore commercial stocks.

Less than six billion barrels of commercial inventories now remain, although most of that volume is not readily available, according to Nasser.

Onshore commercial stocks therefore represent the last major buffer available to offset supply shortfalls.

Emergency reserves may be sufficient to meet demand through the winter, but they would not resolve the longer-term supply challenge. Pressure on crude and refined products is likely to intensify until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and confidence returns to the market, Nasser warned.

Saudi Aramco is currently meeting all customer requirements and could ramp up supplies to 12 million barrels per day within days if requested, Nasser confirmed.

The company has not needed to draw on its strategic product reserves despite pressure on energy markets and supply chains. Aramco has also begun repairing damaged assets even while some sites remain on fire, as part of efforts to maintain operational and supply continuity.

Open-source data, including satellite imagery and shipping records, is increasingly being used to target infrastructure and tankers, Nasser noted, creating new challenges for global energy security and supply chains.